decisions · logic
Pascal's wager
An infinite branch can swamp every ordinary cost, which is a reason to look hard at the table.
You can believe or not, and God may exist or not. One cell pays forever. The others are a finite gain or a finite loss. Does that one cell decide the choice?
Yellow is an infinite gain. Red is a finite loss. Green is a finite gain.
The yellow cell is the only infinite one: you believe, and God exists.
Believing if God does not exist is a finite loss. Not believing if God exists is a finite loss. Not believing if God does not exist is a finite gain.
Any chance of an infinite gain, even a small one, makes the average for believing infinite. A finite loss cannot catch it.
So the argument says believe. The cost of being wrong is finite, and the yellow cell swamps that cost.
Two things have to hold. You have to be able to choose belief the way you choose a box. And this infinite prize has to be the one that counts, not an infinite prize for some other belief.