math-lab

One idea, one story, one twist.

Guesses that feel right

The chance shows up sooner, lands differently than you expected, or feels obvious once the ending is known.

Top pickBeginner

paradox · doors · counting

Monty Hall

Should you switch doors when Monty offers?

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Top pickBeginner

paradox · counting · traps

Birthday paradox

A shared day shows up sooner than you think.

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Top pickBeginner

rates · traps · information

Base rate fallacy

A positive test, or a rare crime, is weak if the thing itself is rare.

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Intermediate

paradox · traps

Boy or girl paradox

The sentence you used already changed the sample.

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Beginner

paradox · counting · traps

Gambler's fallacy

A run of heads does not owe you the next result.

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Intermediate

paradox · traps · doors

Bertrand's box paradox

A gold coin is showing. How often is the other side gold too?

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Beginner

traps · paradox

Conjunction fallacy

Extra details can make a story feel more likely than it is.

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Advanced

paradox · traps · decisions

Two envelopes paradox

St. Petersburg too. An average win can be a bad reason to switch, or to play.

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Advanced

paradox · traps · decisions

Sleeping Beauty paradox

The two answers are still both in the room.

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Advanced

paradox · traps

Bertrand paradox

Three fair recipes give three different answers.

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Intermediate

fairness · paradox · traps

Parrondo's paradox

Each game loses. Switching between them can win.

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Intermediate

fairness · counting · statistics

Benford's law

In real lists, 1 is a first digit more often than 9.

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Beginner

information · rates

Bayes' theorem

A test says someone is ill. Count everyone it says that about, not only the people who are ill.

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Beginner

information · traps

Hindsight bias

Once the ending is known, that path feels like the only one.

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Beginner

paradox · traps · counting

Missing square puzzle

The same four pieces. One picture has an empty square.

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Intermediate

traps · logic

1 = 2

The steps start at 1 = 1. They seem to end at 2 = 1.

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The cases you happened to see

A special case is easy to take for the whole story.

Beginner

rates · traps

Inspection paradox

You did not sample the gaps the way you think you did.

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Beginner

paradox · traps · social

Friendship paradox

Your friends have more friends than you do.

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Intermediate

statistics · traps · cause

Berkson's paradox

Will Rogers too. The group you put people into can fake an improvement.

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Top pickBeginner

statistics · cause

Survivorship bias

You are looking at the ones that lasted.

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Intermediate

statistics · cause

Missing not at random

The gaps are not a random sprinkle.

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Beginner

fairness · social · traps

Why your line is slower

The other lines look faster because you are stuck in this one.

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Beginner

social · statistics

Matthew effect

Being cited makes the next reader more likely to cite it.

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When the groups and the total disagree

Every group can fall while the total still rises.

Top pickBeginner

statistics · rates · cause

Simpson's paradox

Better in each group. Together it flips.

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Intermediate

statistics · cause

Lord's paradox

One class, and two ways of reading the gain.

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Intermediate

statistics · cause

Ecological fallacy

A pattern in the average can be false for each person.

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Beginner

social · fairness · statistics

A fair rule, an unfair total

Everyone is treated by the same rule, and the pile at the end is still lopsided.

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Intermediate

paradox · counting

Gabriel's horn

The inside of each slice gets small. The skin still adds.

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Two people each make a choice

The result is the pair of picks, so your best pick depends on theirs.

Top pickBeginner

games · paradox

Prisoner's dilemma

Each of you does better by defecting. Together you both lose.

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Beginner

games

Game of chicken

Swerving is safe. If you both refuse, you both crash.

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Intermediate

games

Stag hunt

The big prize needs both of you. The hare you can take alone.

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Top pickIntermediate

games

Nash equilibrium

A pair of choices neither of you wants to leave.

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Intermediate

games

Mixed strategy

Sometimes the best plan is a coin flip you meant.

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Beginner

games

Coordination game

You both win if you pick the same thing, and lose if you miss.

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Beginner

games

Battle of the sexes

You want the same evening, and different plans.

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Beginner

games

Matching pennies

One of you wins when the coins match. The other wins when they do not.

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Intermediate

games

Iterated prisoner's dilemma

The same pair plays again, and reputation gets a turn.

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Intermediate

games · information

Cheap talk

A message costs nothing. That does not make it believed.

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When everyone uses the same thing

Taking a little more, all using one road, or agreeing because you think the others want to, can leave everyone worse off.

Top pickBeginner

games · social

Tragedy of the commons

Each extra bite is good for you and bad for the field.

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Beginner

games · social

Volunteer's dilemma

Someone should do it. Each person hopes it is not them.

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Top pickBeginner

fairness · paradox

Braess's paradox

An extra road can make the traffic worse.

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Beginner

voting · social

Abilene paradox

You go because each person thinks the others want to.

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Dividing money, or a cake

Someone can force the shares, or the pieces can be cut so nobody wants to swap.

Beginner

games · decisions

Ultimatum game

You offer part of $10. A low offer can be rejected, and then nobody is paid.

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Beginner

games

Trust game

You send part of $10. It is tripled, and the other player can send some back.

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Beginner

fairness

Fair cake cutting

You cut the cake. The other person chooses a piece first.

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Votes that disagree with each other

A count can look fair and still lose to another way of counting.

Intermediate

voting · a circle

Condorcet paradox

Three restaurants. Every pair has a winner, and the winners go in a circle.

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Advanced

voting · fair rules

Arrow's impossibility

With three or more choices, no voting rule can keep every fairness promise.

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Intermediate

voting · two counts

Borda vs plurality

Count only the top name, or score 2, then 1, then 0. The winner can change.

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Beginner

voting · second choice

Strategic voting

You want A to win. A vote for A can leave C, the one you fear, still ahead.

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Intermediate

voting · two parties

Ostrogorski's paradox

Each person votes for the party they agreed with more often. More people agree with Party X on the school, the taxes, and the roads. Party Y still wins.

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Intermediate

voting · who loses

Anscombe's paradox

Every plan, such as a park or a road, can pass, while most people lose most of the time.

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Intermediate

voting · a bigger group

Condorcet jury theorem

Three people answer the same three cases. If each is right a little more often than wrong, the group gets more sure.

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Is this choice worth taking

A good average, a larger count, or one more look can still be the wrong reason to say yes.

Intermediate

decisions · paradox

Allais paradox

A sure thing changes your pick even when the extra chance is the same.

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Intermediate

decisions · paradox

Ellsberg paradox

A known risk feels safer than a risk with no stated odds.

Play
Beginner

decisions

Sunk cost fallacy

The money already spent is not a reason to spend more.

Play
Intermediate

decisions · games

Moral hazard

Once the loss is covered, the careful choice gets less careful.

Play
Advanced

decisions · logic

Pascal's wager

A decision tree with an infinite branch, and a reason to distrust it.

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Advanced

decisions · paradox

Newcomb's paradox

One box or both, and the predictor has already packed them.

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Top pickBeginner

decisions

Trolley problem

One track, five people, and a switch.

Play
Beginner

decisions

Explore vs exploit

Keep the restaurant you like, or try the new one.

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Intermediate

decisions · counting

Secretary problem

See them one by one. You cannot go back.

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What the others have already figured out

The puzzle starts from what was said: an announcement, a message, or an answer that might be a lie.

Top pickIntermediate

logic · paradox

Unexpected hanging

The surprise disappears the moment the last day is impossible.

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Intermediate

logic · information

Two generals

A message is not enough. The acknowledgement is not enough either.

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Advanced

logic

Blue-eyed islanders

They leave on the nth night, and only because they all heard the guru.

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Beginner

logic

Knights and knaves

One says: We are both knaves.

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Keep going one small step

Replace a plank, remove a grain, or aim a rule at itself.

Beginner

logic

Ship of Theseus

Replace every plank. Is it the same ship?

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Beginner

logic · paradox

Sorites paradox

Remove one grain. When did it stop being a heap?

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Beginner

logic · paradox

Liar paradox

This sentence is false.

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Intermediate

logic · paradox

Russell's paradox

A bag of every bag that is not inside itself. Does that bag go in?

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Beginner

paradox · counting

Coastline paradox

The ends stay put. The shore still has no single length.

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Advanced

paradox · logic

Banach-Tarski paradox

Turn one set of points and it fills a ball. The other set fills a second ball.

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When two things rise together

Rising together still does not say which one pushes.

Beginner

cause

Reverse causation

The arrow may run the other way.

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Intermediate

cause

Intervention vs observation

Watching the coffee drinkers is not the same as assigning the coffee.

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Intermediate

cause · statistics

Ice cream and drowning

Ice cream sales and drowning both go up in summer.

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